Exclusive polling indicates that supporters of Alberta separation believe their side will triumph in the upcoming October referendum, even though surveys show them trailing by a significant margin. According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto, who presented the findings on CBC’s West of Centre, a poll conducted during the first week of September showed 64 per cent of respondents intend to vote to remain in Canada, while 24 per cent favor initiating the separation process. Nine per cent remained undecided, and three per cent planned to skip the question. Despite these numbers, Option 2 supporters remarkably expect the separatist choice to secure 57 per cent of the vote. Both Coletto and University of Calgary political science professor Lisa Young warn that this mismatch in expectations could lead to severe post-referendum consequences, such as distrust in the results and prolonged political turbulence, contradicting Premier Danielle Smith’s view that the vote will allow the province to settle the matter and move forward. The typical Option 2 voter tends to be a conservative partisan, slightly older, more often male, and residing in small cities or bedroom communities around Calgary and Edmonton, driven heavily by grievances regarding Ottawa and a sense that Alberta gives more than it receives. Furthermore, the poll revealed that only 26 per cent of Option 2 supporters view actual independence as their primary motivation, with others seeking leverage or aiming to send a message. Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 Alberta adults online between September 4 and 7, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Source: cbc.ca
