Republicans are swamping House and Senate races with an unprecedented flood of late ad spending as the party tests whether hundreds of millions of dollars can buy it some reprieve from an eroding political environment threatening longtime Republican states and districts. Since the start of September, Republicans have made more than $700 million worth of new advertising bookings in congressional races alone, according to an NBC News analysis of data from AdImpact, a political ad-tracking firm. That is new money on top of what had already been committed to those races in ad reservations made over the summer. By comparison, Democrats booked more than $430 million in new ad reservations across those races last month. The disparity is greatest in the battle for the Senate majority, where almost 7 of every 10 newly booked advertising dollars are coming from Republicans. That is led by a massive, late investment in the Senate race in Texas, where Democrat James Talarico is threatening a longtime Republican seat and the GOP has poured in almost $150 million in new ad dollars to back up its nominee, Ken Paxton. The gap is smaller in the House, where a bit less than 6 in 10 of those new ad dollars are coming from the GOP. Democrats still have a number of advantages in their corner, including President Donald Trump and his party’s eroding standing among voters, Democrats’ own well-funded candidates, and help from outside groups. Candidates can take advantage of a rule that allows them to buy television ads at cheaper rates than outside groups, too. But the color of the outside money flood shows how Republicans, increasingly on defense in both the House and the Senate, are able to lean on their financial advantage in hope of defying political gravity, as party bastions like Texas and even Kansas look more competitive than usual. Everything about the late flood of ad spending is bigger in Texas, where a new group called Texas PAC has booked more than $115 million over the last month alone aimed at boosting Paxton, the state attorney general. Democrats have not won a statewide election in Texas in more than 30 years. But because Republicans are spending largely through outside groups, they have to pay a premium on the rates for each ad, while Talarico’s flush campaign is able to capitalize on those lower candidate ad rates. That means the spending disparity is greater than the actual number of ad airings or their reach. Senate races in Ohio and Michigan also drew more than $75 million in new ad dollars in September, mostly from Republican-aligned groups. They include a super PAC funded by cryptocurrency interests, Trump’s aligned super PACs and other groups aligned with the national party or Senate Republican leadership. Again, both states have Democratic candidates—former Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio and former county health official Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan—who have been spending significant money on their advertising campaigns. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, chair of the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, touted the party’s spending advantage as key to helping Republicans hold on to their majority and credited Trump’s deep-pocketed political operation with ensuring the flood of cash continues. Scott told reporters that he met with Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles, and that the message from Wiles was that money will not be their problem. Democrats take some solace in where the new spending is going, as the vast majority is plowing into states and seats Trump carried in 2024, including congressional districts Trump would have won by double digits that year. Lauren French, the communications director at Senate Majority PAC, said the money is due to a swell of Republican panic rather than momentum. Meredith Kelly, a longtime Democratic strategist, noted that while the spending disparity is a massive challenge, the big question remains whether money is enough to counteract the shifting political landscape.
Source: nbcnews.com
