Exclusive new polling indicates that Alberta separatists believe they will win an upcoming referendum that surveys suggest they are set to lose by a wide margin. According to a poll conducted by Abacus Data during the first week of September, 64 per cent of respondents plan to vote to remain in Canada, while 24 per cent support starting the separation process. Nine per cent remain undecided, and three per cent intend to skip the question. Despite trailing in the polls, supporters of Option 2—which asks voters to commence the legal process for a binding separation referendum—maintain high expectations, with many believing their side will capture 57 per cent of the vote. Abacus Data CEO David Coletto attributes this gap to political bubbles and natural optimism among dedicated campaign members. University of Calgary political science professor Lisa Young warned that such inflated expectations could lead to post-referendum fallout, including distrust in the official results. While Premier Danielle Smith has suggested the vote will serve as a definitive gut-check allowing the province to move forward, both Young and Coletto expect the movement’s grievances to persist regardless of the outcome. The survey also profiled the typical Option 2 supporter as a conservative partisan, slightly older, more often male, and residing primarily in smaller cities or bedroom communities surrounding Calgary and Edmonton. Furthermore, only 26 per cent of those backing Option 2 cited independence as their main motivation, with others viewing the vote as a mechanism for leverage, principle, or sending a message to Ottawa.
Source: cbc.ca
