The Atlantic hurricane season is experiencing record quietness due to a massive El Niño that disrupts storms before they can develop. According to the National Hurricane Center, no Atlantic hurricanes have formed yet this year, and none are expected for at least another week, despite this period normally marking the peak of the season, which runs from June through November with a peak between August and October. Only five relatively weak and brief tropical storms have formed so far. On Saturday, 2026 set a record for the latest start to a season without a storm reaching hurricane strength with 64 mph winds during the satellite era, noted Nick Novella of the Weather Prediction Center. Although pre-1950 records show some years with no hurricanes this late, meteorologists lack confidence in those numbers due to incomplete ocean monitoring. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, reported that overall hurricane activity—factoring in storm count, strength, and duration—is at a post-1950 record low, sitting at just 7% of normal levels for this time of year, well below the team’s annual forecast of nine named storms. Experts warn that people should remain vigilant because a single storm can be catastrophic, pointing to 1992 when a late season produced devastating Hurricane Andrew, while noting that less powerful storms can also prove dangerous. Kristen Corbosiero, an atmospheric science professor at the University at Albany, described the Atlantic as remarkably inhospitable to tropical cyclones, subjecting any forming storms to a triple threat of shearing winds, dry air, and downward-pushing pressure. Five experts told The Associated Press that these forces stem from El Niño, a natural and temporary warming of the equatorial Pacific that recurs every two to seven years, most recently in 2023, and alters global weather. Klotzbach emphasized the impressive impact of El Niño on the Atlantic, where no systems have come close to hurricane strength. The primary El Niño driver in the Atlantic is record-strong wind shear, characterized by low-level easterly winds clashing with high-altitude westerly winds that tear storms apart, according to Corbosiero. In the primary genesis region between Africa and the Caribbean, wind shear exceeds what tropical cyclones can withstand by about 45 mph, an unprecedented level that decapitates storms early. University of Miami hurricane expert Brian McNoldy noted that storms lose their heads before having a chance to develop. While the Gulf of Mexico represents the sole exception where wind shear remains low and potential late-season storms could still strengthen, the broader region faces dry air, African dust, a shortage of weather seeds, and high-pressure downward air currents. This suppression occurs despite record-warm global ocean waters for 100 days, demonstrating El Niño’s strength, though MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel explained that Atlantic waters have warmed more slowly than the atmosphere above. Emanuel’s research indicates that the temperature difference between air and water drives hurricanes via heat flow from ocean to air, resulting in reduced storm activity when that difference is high. Atlantic waters lag the atmosphere by a few months in experiencing El Niño, meaning warm water will persist next year as El Niño winds down, raising the probability of an extra busy upcoming season. Conversely, El Niño boosts Pacific tropical cyclone activity by providing moist air and minimal wind shear. Eastern Pacific storm activity is nearly double normal levels with longer-lasting hurricanes, while central Pacific activity exceeds normal by 40%, leaving the eastern Pacific exceptionally active. While the Atlantic recorded only five small tropical storms, the eastern Pacific saw 16 named storms and the central Pacific saw 20. Hawaii faced impacts twice, with Hurricane Lowell pelting western islands last week and causing widespread power outages on Kauai, including 17.76 inches of rain in Hanalei. In August, Hurricane Lala passed 30 miles off the Big Island’s coast as a Category 1 storm, bringing torrential rain and gusts over 80 mph, causing power outages and washing away about 100 homes. Corbosiero noted that El Niño pushes storms further west than usual, and while forecasters anticipated a slow season due to known El Niño patterns, McNoldy admitted that nobody foresaw it being quite this remarkable.
Source: cbsnews.com
